The Catalan giants were absolutely bamboozled by Paris Saint German two weeks ago, as Kylian Mbappe utterly terrorised and tore through the ageing midfield and defence of Barca, scoring a hatrick,and putting one foot of PSG in the next round. Mbape became the first away player to score 3 goals in a Champions League match at the Camp Nou since Andriy Shevchenko for Dynamo Kyiv in 1997. Pundits have even begun to say that the game marked the rise of Kylian Mbappe as the best player in the world. But in football, it is not over until the final whistle is blown.
Barcelona are not newcomers in the world of comebacks. Four years ago, Barcelona produced a famous comeback against PSG at this stage of their 2nd leg tie at the Camp Nou. A hat-trick from Neymar inspired Barca to overturn a 4-0 deficit, and triumph 6-1 in that game. But this time around Braca has already lost 4-1 at home and they now travel to Paris for the return leg.
The reality is that Barca have been on the decline. Last season they were walloped 8-2 at home by Bayern Munich. Last December, they were embarrassed 3- o by Juventus, and then just two weeks ago, they were subdued by PSG at home again. The loss to Juve and now PSG mean that Barcelona have suffered successive home defeats in Europe in the same season for the first time in their history.
These notwithstanding, there may be some glimmer of hope as Barca have had some remarkable comebacks in recent weeks. The first being at Granda where they overturned a 2 -goal deficit and fought on till extra time where they won 5-3. Another came at Real Betis where they came from behind twice to snatch a late 3-2 win. More recently at Sevilla in the 2nd leg of the Copa Del Rey where they overturned a 2 goal first leg deficit, and won 3-0 at the Camp Nou. So we can see that Barca can bounce back from defeats.
The big question is can Barca score at least 3 goals more than PSG in Paris, and qualify?
We will give you Barca‘s chances based on the facts. Barça have won 4 of the last 6 fixtures against PSG, so one could say recent history favours Barca. But PSG have scored 4 goals to win the remaining 2 games in that sequence. So if Barca choose to come out and play their usual open football, PSG has the firepower to punish them. So what are their chances?
Popular Bookmakers betBonanza, have given specific chances that Barca have to qualify for the next round. According to their projection, Barca have a 35.7% chance of winning the match. With Messi playing some good football, and coming on the back of their impressive win against Sevilla, a win in Paris is not impossible. But whether just a win can give them a place in the next round is another story. betBonanza also projects that Barca have a 19.6% chance of keeping a clean sheet. A very low possibility with the marauding Mbappe, which shows that it is rather unlikely to happen.
Furthermore, because it’s a game where both sides are desperate to score, especially Barca, the likelihood of 2-3 goals being scored is 45.5%; while 4-5 goals is 35.1%. This is not surprising as the only way for either team to secure qualification is by scoring not defending. If PSG scores first, they make the job of Barca much more harder. If Barca scores first they’ll automatically jeopardize PSG’s comfortable position. So goalscoring will be key for both teams.
Barca also have a 50% chance of scoring the first goal of the game. Barca in their classical attacking way of playing will likely be on the offensive early on. They are already down by 3 goals, and attacking might be the best option for Koeman. Diehard supporters of the Blaugrana could also fancy Barca scoring in both fans at 33.9%. The fact is if Barca wants to qualify, they to have to come out and score.