Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid: UEFA Champions League Predictions & Betting Tips 04/03/2025
Champions League knockout ties are always fiery affairs, but Tuesday’s last-16 first-leg showdown between city rivals Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu promises to be even more intense, with both bragging rights and progression on the line.
Heading into this clash, Real Madrid’s flawless UCL knockout history against Atletico, having won all five previous encounters, including two final victories, should give them belief they can secure a result that puts them in the driving seat for the return leg.
However, while Los Blancos’ dominance in past UCL knockout meetings suggests they have the edge, a raft of key injury absentees—including Jude Bellingham, Eder Militao, Dani Carvajal, and Dani Ceballos—makes this anything but straightforward. Keeping that perfect record intact will be a tall order, especially given that they haven’t managed a clean sheet in their last ten meetings with Atletico.
With Militao and Carvajal both ruled out, a shutout looks unlikely. As a result, Real may need to rely on their attack to take control of this fixture. That puts the onus on Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, and Kylian Mbappe—who has netted seven times in ten UCL appearances this season—to deliver a big performance.
Atletico, meanwhile, must feel this is their best chance to end their dreadful UCL knockout record against their neighbours. They arrive at the Bernabeu unbeaten in their last six La Liga matches and with a near full-strength squad.
Having scored in each of their last ten matches, Los Colchoneros will be confident of breaching what is likely to be a makeshift Real defence. With Atletico having struck first in six of their last eight competitive meetings with Real, don’t be surprised if they take lead here, especially with Julian Alvarez—who has six goals in eight UCL appearances—leading the line.
Betting Tips: Real Madrid Win or Draw & Both Teams to Score; Real Madrid Over 1.5 Goals; Vinícius Júnior & Rodrygo 1+ Shots on Target
04/03 21:00 Real Madrid – Atlético Madrid Real Madrid Win or Draw & Both Teams to Score @ 2.10; Real Madrid Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80; Vinícius Júnior & Rodrygo 1+ Shots on Target @ 1.88 (Betano)
Both teams have scored in each of their last nine meetings, highlighting how rare clean sheets are in the Madrid derby, and we expect that trend to continue here.
That said, despite their injury concerns, Real Madrid’s European pedigree, home advantage, and perfect UCL knockout record against Atletico make them tough to bet against here.
Los Blancos have never lost a UCL knockout tie to Atletico, and with an attack featuring Mbappe, Vinícius Júnior, and Rodrygo, they will always create chances. Given their attacking strength and their historical edge over this opponent in this competition, we back them to avoid defeat.
However, an Atletico side that has scored in each of their last ten competitive matches should fancy their chances against a makeshift Real defence. With Los Blancos failing to keep a clean sheet in their last ten meetings with Atletico, the visitors should get on the scoresheet.
Therefore, our top bet is Real Madrid to Win or Draw & Both Teams to Score at 2.10 odds on Betano.
Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid Win or Draw & Both Teams to Score @ 2.10
Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid Win or Draw & Both Teams to Score @ 2.10Real Madrid Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 odds
We also like the value on Real Madrid to score at least two goals, available at 1.80 odds on Betano.
Even with key absentees, Real Madrid’s attack is still formidable, with Mbappe, Vinícius Júnior, and Rodrygo all expected to start. Los Blancos have a habit of scoring at least twice in big European nights at the Bernabeu, and against an Atletico side that typically concedes in these encounters, backing Real to score at least two goals is a solid bet.
Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80Vinícius Júnior & Rodrygo 1+ Shots on Target @ 1.88
For our final tip, we are backing Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo to each register at least one shot on target.
Both players are direct and pacy and possess strong UCL shooting stats. Vinícius averages 3.1 shots per game, with 1.9 hitting the target, while Rodrygo takes an average of 1.5 shots, with 1.1 on target.
With Real likely to attack to offset their defensive concerns, and with Atletico expected to sit deep and cede possession, both players should get ample opportunities to hit the target at least once.
Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid - Vinícius Júnior & Rodrygo 1+ Shots on Target @ 1.88Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid - Vinícius Júnior & Rodrygo 1+ Shots on Target @ 1.88For even greater value, consider combining all three bets using Betano’s bet builder: Real Madrid Win or Draw & Both Teams to Score + Real Madrid Over 1.5 Goals + Vinícius Júnior & Rodrygo 1+ Shots on Target — for a 4.35 odds slate.
Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid - Bet Builder: Real Madrid Win or Draw & Both Teams to Score + Real Madrid Over 1.5 Goals + Vinícius Júnior & Rodrygo 1+ Shots on Target @ 4.35Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid - Bet Builder: Real Madrid Win or Draw & Both Teams to Score + Real Madrid Over 1.5 Goals + Vinícius Júnior & Rodrygo 1+ Shots on Target @ 4.35Possible Lineups:
- Real Madrid: Courtois; Valverde, Mendy, Asencio, Rudiger, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Diaz, Rodrygo, Vinicius, Mbappe
- Atletico Madrid: Oblak; Molina, Gimenez, Le Normand, Galan, De Paul, Barrios, Llorente, Lino, Griezmann, Alvarez
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