FC Porto vs AS Roma: Europa League Play-offs Predictions & Betting Tips 13/02/2025
A poor league phase campaign, which saw FC Porto finish 18th on the table with just three wins from eight matches, means the Portuguese giants now face a two-legged play-off against AS Roma for a chance to reach the Europa League last 16.
Porto’s struggles have already led to a managerial change, with Martín Anselmi brought in to steady the ship, and he’ll need a strong result in Thursday’s first leg to take control of the tie and keep his side in with a chance of salvaging something from the season.
So, perhaps it’s a good omen for Anselmi that Porto have eliminated Roma in all three previous European knockout ties, including in the Champions League in 2019.
The Portuguese side has also been formidable at Estádio do Dragão, avoiding defeat in 15 of their 16 home matches across all competitions this season (W12, D3), another reason for them to feel optimistic here.
Like Porto, Roma also endured a poor league phase, finishing 15th. A major factor in that was their dismal away record in the competition—a long-standing issue, with the Italians winning just three of their last 19 EL away matches.
Their overall away form this season isn’t any better, with just two wins from 17 matches on the road, largely due to a leaky defence. These numbers hardly inspire confidence about their chances here, especially given their poor head-to-head against Porto in European knockout ties.
Perhaps in an attempt to address their struggles away from home, Claudio Ranieri opted to rest Mats Hummels and Leandro Paredes at the weekend, ensuring his key players are fresh for this trip.
With a second leg still to come, Roma may take a cautious approach here, knowing that an away defeat could leave them with too much to do at home.
Betting Tips: FC Porto Win or Draw & Under 2.5 Goals; Samu Aghehowa Anytime Scorer
13/02 21:00 FC Porto – AS Roma FC Porto Win or Draw & Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.34; Samu Aghehowa Anytime Scorer @ 3.00 (22bet)
Porto have been solid at Estádio do Dragão all season, and considering they’ve eliminated Roma in all three previous European knockout ties, along with the visitors’ poor away form and struggles in front of goal on the road, the best betting value here lies with the Portuguese side to at least avoid defeat in a low-scoring match.
Roma will look to contain the hosts and get a result that keeps them alive in the tie, but securing three points here looks beyond them.
Therefore, we recommend betting on Porto Win or Draw & Under 2.5 Goals, available at an enticing 2.34 odds on 22bet.
FC Porto vs AS Roma - FC Porto Win or Draw & Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.34
FC Porto vs AS Roma - FC Porto Win or Draw & Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.34Samu Aghehowa Anytime Goal Scorer @ 3.00
We also like the look of Porto’s Samu Aghehowa to score anytime in this clash. The young striker has been Porto’s biggest goal threat in this competition with five goals so far.
While he hasn’t scored in his last six outings, the Europa League has been where he’s enjoyed the most success, and a goal drought suggests he’s due a breakthrough.
Facing Roma’s porous defence in a competition he thrives in could be the perfect opportunity to rediscover his scoring touch.
Back Samu Aghehowa to score anytime at a solid 3.00 odds on 22bet.
FC Porto vs AS Roma - Samu Aghehowa Anytime Scorer @ 3.00FC Porto vs AS Roma - Samu Aghehowa Anytime Scorer @ 3.00For even bigger payout, you can combine both picks using betBonanza’s bet builder, as 22bet doesn’t offer one.
A bet builder featuring Porto Win or Draw + Under 2.5 Goals + Samu Aghehowa Anytime Scorer would return a strong 7.38 odds on betBonanza.
FC Porto vs AS Roma - Bet Builder: Porto Win or Draw + Under 2.5 Goals + Samu Aghehowa Anytime Scorer @ 7.38
FC Porto vs AS Roma - Bet Builder: Porto Win or Draw + Under 2.5 Goals + Samu Aghehowa Anytime Scorer @ 7.38Predicted Line-ups:
- Porto: Costa (GK); Djalo, Perez, Otavio; Mario, Eustaquio, Varela, Moura; Pepe, Mora; Aghehowa
- Roma: Svilar (GK); Mancini, Hummels, Ndicka; Saelemaekers, Kone, Paredes, Angelino; Dybala, Pisilli; Dovbyk
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