Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: UEFA Champions League Predictions & Betting Tips 12/03/2025
The Madrid derby is set for another explosive chapter on Wednesday as Atletico Madrid welcome Real Madrid to the Wanda Metropolitano for the second leg of their UEFA Champions League (UCL) last-16 tie.
Real Madrid edged the first leg 2-1, a challenging position for most teams against Los Blancos in a two-legged UCL knockout tie. But perhaps not for Atletico, whose remarkable record of never losing at home in their last 18 UCL knockout matches puts them in a highly favourable position heading into this one.
In fact, you’d have to go back to March 1997 for Los Colchoneros’ last home defeat at this stage of the competition. Moreover, overturning a first-leg deficit in a UCL knockout tie at home is nothing new for Atleti boss Diego Simeone, who masterminded a comeback against Inter Milan at the same stage last season.
So, there’s plenty for Los Colchoneros to be optimistic about. However, their last outing wasn’t the best of preparations, as they suffered a costly 2-1 defeat at Getafe, conceding twice late on, albeit with 10 men. It served as a timely reminder that tightening up at the back is an absolute must if they are to have any chance of overcoming their city rivals and advancing to the UCL quarterfinals.
Meanwhile, despite Real Madrid’s near-flawless record of progressing from UCL knockout ties—having done so 20 out of 21 times after winning the first leg at home—Carlo Ancelotti is under no illusions about the scale of the challenge awaiting his side across town.
The last time Los Blancos failed to advance after winning the first leg of a UCL knockout tie was against Ajax in 2019 and Ancelotti has already stressed the need for tactical discipline, fully aware that any lapses could prove costly.
And Ancelotti has legitimate reasons for concern going into this one. Despite their 2-1 win over Rayo Vallecano at the weekend, Real were outshot 20 to 10, indicating that there are serious defensive holes that Atletico can exploit.
Betting Tips: Atletico Madrid Win or Draw & Goal/Goal; Julian Alvarez to Either Score or Assist; Over 4.5 Cards
12/03 21:00 Atletico Madrid – Real Madrid Atletico Madrid Win or Draw & Goal/Goal @ 2.16; Julian Alvarez to Either Score or Assist @ 1.90; Over 4.5 Cards @ 1.62 (Bet9ja)
The first leg was tight, with Real Madrid narrowly edging it 2-1. In fact, seven of the last nine meetings between these two have ended in draws, underlining how close Madrid derbies tend to be.
However, this second leg could unfold differently. Atletico Madrid have no choice but to push forward in search of goals, a somewhat uncharacteristic approach for a Diego Simeone side. But given the circumstances, they’ll need to take risks—risks that could leave them exposed to Real Madrid’s lethal counter-attacks..
Plus, with both sides struggling for clean sheets, this clash has all the makings of a game where both teams find the net.
That said, Atleti’s formidable home record in the Champions League knockout stages suggests they’re almost impossible to beat in front of their fans at this stage, and they’ll be highly motivated against their city rivals.
However, their 2-1 loss to Getafe also exposed a soft underbelly that an attack of Real Madrid’s calibre should be more than capable of punishing.
Therefore, we recommend backing the combo bet of Atletico Madrid Win or Draw & Goal/Goal at 2.16 odds on Bet9ja.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid - Atletico Madrid Win or Draw & Goal/Goal @ 2.16
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid - Atletico Madrid Win or Draw & Goal/Goal @ 2.16Julián Álvarez to Score or Assist @ 1.90 odds on Bet9ja
Álvarez has been a key figure in the UCL this season, contributing seven goals and an assist in nine appearances, including Atleti’s only goal in the first leg.
His importance to Atleti’s attack suggests he’ll play a major role again, either scoring or assisting a teammate. So, backing Álvarez for a goal contribution offers solid value.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid - ulian Alvarez to Either Score or Assist @ 1.90Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid - ulian Alvarez to Either Score or Assist @ 1.90Over 4.5 Cards @ 1.62 odds on Bet9ja
Madrid derbies are notoriously intense, and with Atletico needing to be aggressive while Real look to manage the game (possibly resorting to time-wasting tactics), tempers will almost certainly flare.
Expect plenty of tough tackles and heated exchanges, and given the stakes and the history between these two, a high number of bookings seems inevitable.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid - Over 4.5 Cards @ 1.62Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid - Over 4.5 Cards @ 1.62Predicted Line ups:
- Atletico Madrid: Oblak (GK); Molina, Gimenez, Le Normand, Javi Galan; Simeone, Marcos Llorente, De Paul, Lino; Alvarez, Griezmann
- Real Madrid: Courtois (GK); Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Mendy; Tchouameni, Camavinga; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vini Jr; Mbappe
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