Nigeria’s quest for a fourth continental title continues on Wednesday as they take on South Africa in a semi-final clash at the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations.
It was in 2013 that Nigeria last lifted the trophy, with South Africa playing gracious hosts. This time around, however, roles will be reversed as South Africa seeks to dash Nigeria’s dreams at the Stade de la Paix in Bouaké.
However, the Bayana Bayana face a significant hurdle in that task: history. In their three previous AFCON encounters, the Super Eagles have dominated Bayana Bayana, winning with a combined 8-1 scoreline. Their last encounter ended 2-1 in favour of Nigeria in the quarter-finals of the 2019 edition in Egypt.
Nigeria’s path to the last four has been a masterclass in defensive solidity and attacking efficiency. They’ve conceded just one goal in five games, winning their last four to nil. Upfront, their attacking prowess sees them boast the tournament’s highest expected goals (8.59) and most clear-cut chances created (18), demonstrating their ability to create scoring opportunities at will. They’re also ruthless in the box, with all six goals coming from within, highlighting their deadly finishing in the area.
Defensive Heroics Mask Bafana’s Scoring Woes
While Bafana Bafana also boasts four straight shutouts, they have struggled offensively, failing to score in three of their five matches. Their quarter-final against Cape Verde was a scoreless draw decided by goalkeeper Ronwen Williams, who became the first goalie in AFCON history to save four penalties in a single shootout.
Historically, the odds seem stacked against South Africa. In their last AFCON semi-final appearance 24 years ago, they fell to Nigeria. Interestingly, their only AFCON title, in 1996 as hosts, came when Nigeria was absent from the tournament.
Betting Tip: Nigeria to win
07/02 18:00 Nigeria – South Africa Nigeria to win @ 1.65 (Betano)
Considering their impressive form, historical dominance, strong defence, and potent attack Nigeria seems the clear favourite. Therefore, we recommend backing Nigeria to win at boosted odds of 1.65 on Betano.
Nigeria vs South Africa - Nigeria to win @ 1.65
Alternatively, you could opt for a safer bet with Betano’s “2 Goals Ahead” early payout option for Nigeria’s win at 1.60 odds. This option guarantees your winnings if Nigeria builds a two-goal lead at any point during the match, offering a more secure alternative to the standard full-time win bet.
Extra Tip: Osimhen to score
Despite leading the tournament in shots taken (19), Nigerian striker Victor Osimhen has netted only one goal. He even had a goal disallowed for offside against Angola on Friday.
Despite a low shot conversion rate of 5.3%, Osimhen’s expected goals (xG) is a much higher 3.09, indicating he’s creating quality scoring chances. This -2.09 underperformance is the biggest negative gap between actual goals and xG in the tournament. This suggests he’s due for a goalscoring return.
Therefore, despite his current goal tally, Osimhen’s shot numbers and underlying data suggest he’s primed to find the back of the net. So, if you’re looking for a potentially rewarding punt, consider backing him to score anytime on Wednesday at 2.05 odds on Betano.
Nigeria vs South Africa - Osimhen to score @ 2.05