If you’re looking for an exciting way to bet on the NBA, forget about the basic wagers on the winner and loser of the game. NBA player prop betting is where all the action is. Points, assists, blocks, steals, and other metrics – NBA player props offer diverse betting options within a game and are often more thrilling than betting on the game’s outcome. In this article, we’ll introduce you to the world of NBA player props and provide you with everything you need to navigate this thrilling betting terrain.
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What are NBA Prop Bets?
Prop bets are wagers on specific events happening within a single NBA game. They’re a way to focus on specific aspects of player and team performance and can apply to events and statistics of both individuals and the team as a whole.
Importantly, prop bets are independent of the game’s outcome – they’re not tied to standard NBA point spreads, win/loss bets, or even the total points scored (the Over/Unders).
There are three main categories of prop bets:
- Player props: Focus on individual player performance within a game.
- Team props: Focus on the collective performance of the entire team.
- Game props: Focus on specific events within the game, not tied to individual players or teams.
NBA player props
NBA player prop odds are the biggest market among prop bets, letting you wager on various aspects of a player’s performance in a single game. Player props are tied to an individual player’s in-game statistics or achievements. They are almost always “Over/Under” (O/U) bets on offensive or defensive stats or “Yes/No” bets on the player’s involvement in specific events.
As with any sports bet, odds reflect the likelihood of an event happening. For player props, this means odds are directly connected to a player’s profile, past performance, and consistency. For example, Giannis Antetokounmpo will always have shorter odds than a rookie or G Leaguer.
An important condition specific to the NBA is that a player must actually play for the bet to be valid. Last-minute decisions to sit a player usually void the bet and return your money. However, always double-check your sportsbook’s terms and conditions to be sure.
There are a lot of different combinations of player prop bets in the NBA, and we’ll explore them further below.
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Points Scored Props
NBA player prop bets come in many different combinations, but the most popular type of NBA player prop is points scored props. These are simple bets on whether a player will score above or below a specific number of points. Sportsbooks will assign a number of points to a particular player (i.e., Luka Doncic +/- 31.5) and then assign odds to both the Over/Under. You can also bet on player assist props. The mechanics of this bet are the same as in the above example.
Combined Points and Statistical Props
You can also bet on total points and rebounds props, points and assists, as well as rebounds and assists combos. For example, Joel Embiid might have a +/- 40.5 points and rebounds prop. You win if he scores 36 points and 5 rebounds (a total of 41) or even 18 rebounds and 23 points (a total of 41). The key is that the statistics being measured, when added together, must be either over or under the total the sportsbook assigns.
3-Pointers Made Props
3-pointer props allow you to bet on the number of 3-point shots a player does or does not make during a game. It’s important to note that with 3-point props, you’re betting on the number of 3-pointers a player hits and not the actual points a player gets from hitting a 3-point shot.
Double-Doubles and Triple-Doubles
NBA Player prop bets also let you bet on whether a player will record a double-double or triple-double. A double-double is when a player records 10 or more points in two categories of points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocked shots, while a triple-double is 10 or more in three of the categories mentioned above. Betting on a double-double or triple-double is a Yes/No bet, with odds reflecting the probability of whether or not a specific player will record one or not.
Defensive Props
Defensive statistics like steals or blocks are another major category of NBA player prop bets. You can wager on the number of steals or blocks a player registers in a game or even a combined total of both.
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There are a variety of techniques that can help you become a profitable NBA player prop bettor, including traditional, advanced, and tracking statistics. It’s also important to consider injuries when placing your bets. Let’s dive into each topic individually to learn how to bet on NBA player props.
Traditional Stats
Think of these stats as the building blocks of NBA prop bets. You’re usually wagering on how many points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals, turnovers, or three-pointers a player will rack up in a single game – or a combo of those. So, knowing their average in these categories is like learning the alphabet of prop betting.
But just because LeBron James, for instance, averages 25.5 points a game doesn’t always make going “over” 24.5 his points prop a surefire win. Averages, while helpful, only tell part of the story. Other factors that may affect a player’s per-game average must be considered.
Like the middle child of stat averages, the median gives you a more accurate picture of what a player usually does, especially early in the season when hot streaks and duds can skew things. Imagine our friend LeBron with games of 19, 20, 21, and then a whopping 42-point explosion! His average is 25.5, but he’s only cracked 24.5 points once. Maybe a teammate was out that 42-point game, or he had a favourable defensive matchup compared to usual. That high average suddenly feels less reliable. In this case, the median – 20.5 – paints a more accurate picture of his typical performance.
Next, let’s break it down further with “splits”. Think of it as breaking down a player’s production under different conditions. Minutes played, defensive matchups – these are all variables that can affect a player’s performance. Our 25.5-point Lebron might average 20.5 points when playing 20-29 minutes (coming off the bench), but bump up to 30.5 points when playing 30-39 minutes (stepping in as a starter). Knowing this, you can make smarter bets based on their likely role for a specific game. Opponents, home/away games, even days of rest – all these splits offer valuable insights into how a player might perform under different circumstances.
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Advanced Stats
Advanced stats are far more than just what a player actually records in the box score. These numbers go beyond points and rebounds to reveal a player’s true efficiency and impact on the court, letting you see past surface-level numbers and predict how a player might perform in a different role or matchup.
A player’s shooting percentage doesn’t often paint an accurate picture of their efficiency on the court. Imagine two players: one who shoots 50% from the field, but primarily layups, the other hitting 40% with a mix of tough threes and midrange jumpers. Advanced stats like “effective field goal percentage” (eFG%) adjust for shot difficulty, revealing who’s truly the more efficient scorer. So, that 47.9% shooter you wrote off might actually be the more efficient scorer with a 56.4% eFG%, making him a good bet for points if he gets hot.
Next up, let’s talk rates. These stats measure how much of a team’s production (field goal attempts, free throw attempts, and turnovers) a player generates on the court. Usage rate tells you how often they have the ball in their hands, firing up shots and creating plays. Rebound rate reveals their dominance on the boards, grabbing the lion’s share of available rebounds compared to their teammates. Assist rate shows their knack for setting up teammates for easy buckets, while block and steal rates highlight their defensive contribution.
These rates provide invaluable insight for prop bettors. Imagine a player with a high usage rate facing a weaker opponent. You know they’ll have the ball in their hands all night, potentially racking up points and assists. Or, a dominant rebounder up against a smaller team. Their rebound rate might soar, leading to a prop bet payday.
Tracking Stats
Tracking stats are great for gaining deeper insights into a player’s efficiency and determining if a player is genuinely dominating or just getting lucky.
Let’s take two key stats as examples: potential assists and contested rebound rate.
Potential assists ask, “How many scoring opportunities did this player create for their teammates?” It’s not just about who gets the final dish before the bucket. This stat counts any pass leading to a shot, foul, or turnover. A player with lots of potential assists but few actual assists might be making great plays that aren’t getting finished by their teammates. On the other hand, someone with way more actual assists than potential assists could be benefiting from a hot shooting night or some easy layups off other players’ hard work.
Contested rebounds tell you a different story. This stat considers how many rebounds a player grabs against someone else, asking, “How good are they at fighting for the ball?” Someone with a high contested rebound rate might not have the most total rebounds, but they’re battling it out in the trenches, winning those tough one-on-one matchups. On the other hand, a player with a low contested rebound rate might be racking up rebounds, but only when the ball is bouncing around freely. They might not be putting in the hustle to box out and battle for those crucial boards.
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While stats are helpful in cooking up NBA player props bets, they aren’t the only tools available to a bettor. To really make profitable player prop bets, you need to understand how injuries impact both the missing player’s team and their rivals.
A team missing its defensive anchor might open up scoring lanes for the opposing team. But if the said player doesn’t usually rack up tons of points, his absence would not automatically translate to a scoring boost for his teammates. However, if the injured player has a high assist rate, his teammates might see a boost in their own assist numbers. That’s how much injuries can impact player and team performance dynamics.
This is why staying on top of the NBA injury report and X (formerly Twitter) updates throughout the day is crucial. News in the NBA can break at the last minute, and a star player suddenly listed as questionable can shake things up. Sometimes, waiting before placing bets on his teammates is the safest play. But if you can crack the code and accurately predict who’s playing and who’s sitting, you can get ahead of the market and land a sweet win.
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