Handicap betting can seem a bit complicated if you’re not familiar with it, but it’s actually one of the most versatile and rewarding sports betting techniques to get better value out of football bets.
It’s often the go-to for those looking to improve the odds on a strong favourite or balance out a lopsided matchup. But there’s so much more to handicap betting than just these basics, and if you dig deeper, you’ll see that it opens up opportunities for games you might have skipped over otherwise.
There are different types of handicaps, such as the European Handicap, which is the most popular type of handicap market in Europe and the United Kingdom. There is also the Asian Handicap, which removes the likelihood of a draw and is expressed in multiples of 0.5 goals (‘half goals’), 0.25 goals (quarter goals) or 0.75 goals (three-quarter goals), making them unique from other types of handicaps.
In this article, we’ll focus on the European Handicap and walk you through some practical ways to use handicap betting, from taking on the heavy favourites to squeezing value out of tighter games.
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The Basics of Handicap Betting
Before getting into when to use handicaps, let’s break down what they actually do.
In a handicap bet, you are giving one team a “handicap,” which is essentially a head start in goals. This could be either positive (adding goals) or negative (removing goals), depending on the team’s expected performance.
For instance, if Real Madrid are playing a lower-ranked team, say Alaves, you could place a -1 handicap on Real, meaning they’d need to win by at least two goals for the bet to come in.
You do this because, normally, you’d expect Real to not just win but to do so by a large margin. Therefore, it would make sense to remove a goal from Real’s expected total, as you’d expect them to score at least 2 goals more than Alaves and cover the handicap.
On the other hand, you could believe an underdog has a battling chance, not necessarily to win the match, but to at least avoid a heavy defeat in a close match. Here, you can add a +2 handicap to the underdogs, which means they don’t have to win at all – just avoid losing by two goals or more for your bet to pay out.
So, as you can see, handicap betting is most commonly used to get longer odds on a favourite, but it’s equally useful for backing an underdog to keep things close or even come out with a surprise win.
Now, let’s look at when it makes sense to use handicaps and how they can make all the difference in your betting strategy.
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Taking On Heavy Favourites: When to Give Goals
Most people use handicaps to improve the odds on a favourite, and it’s easy to see why. If you’re looking at a strong team like Liverpool facing a mid-table opponent, the odds might be so low that there’s hardly any point in betting on them to win outright.
This is where a handicap can turn those slim odds into something more worthwhile.
Take a hypothetical game between Liverpool and Ipswich. Liverpool will be clear favourites, so the standard odds on them to win might be something like 1.22. That means you’d need to stake ₦100 just to win ₦22, which doesn’t really make any sense unless you’re betting large sums. But by applying a handicap, you can give Liverpool a bit more of a challenge and get much better odds as a result.
So, let’s say you put a -1 handicap on Liverpool, meaning they need to win by at least two goals for you to win the bet. Now, the odds might jump to around 1.61.
If you’re confident in Liverpool’s recent form, especially in terms of goal-scoring, and you’ve done your research on their past meetings with Ipswich, this could be a much more attractive option. And if you’re feeling extra confident, a -2 handicap would give you even longer odds, requiring Liverpool to win by three or more goals.
You could also opt to back Ipswich on a + handicap (+1, +2, +3 etc.), but the more goals you add to Ipswich, the lower the odds, so a + 1 or +2 handicap would probably offer the best odds. However, the question to always consider is whether they’d be able to stay within the given handicap.
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Working With Past Results
Handicap betting works especially well when you’ve got some solid past data to go on. If Liverpool have won by two or more goals in 60% of their last ten meetings with Ipswich, that’s a pretty strong case for a -1 or -2 handicap.
But keep in mind that handicap betting is always a balancing act – you’re weighing the potential payout against the team’s ability to clear that handicap comfortably. In games where the favourite has consistently dominated, though, removing a goal or two can make a huge difference to your odds.
Finding Value in Closer Matches
While handicaps are great for heavy favourites, they’re also useful in closer matchups where the odds are less one-sided.
Let’s consider a scenario where two mid-table teams – say Brentford and Brighton – are facing off. They’re closely matched, so the bookmakers might have Brentford at 2.36 odds and Brighton at 2.90 odds. If you fancy Brighton’s chances despite their away status, a handicap bet could be the ideal way to back the underdog.
In this case, you might go for a +1 handicap on Brighton, which means they don’t have to win outright for your bet to pay off; even a draw would see you through. This approach can be particularly useful when past encounters between the teams show they tend to keep it close.
If recent games between Brentford and Brighton show plenty of draws or narrow one-goal wins, betting on a draw could be tempting. But sometimes, it’s wiser to give yourself some breathing room by using a handicap.
Say Brighton have had a good record against Brentford, but typically by only a one-goal margin. Here, you could back Brentford with a +1 handicap draw. Now, Brighton only need to win by a goal to see a return, and considering the close nature of their previous matchups, this is a great way to make the most of handicap betting.
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Using League Averages and Trends to Your Advantage
Beyond specific teams and matchups, handicap betting can also benefit from league-wide trends. In football, some score lines appear more often than others, and paying attention to these patterns can give you an edge.
For instance, in the 2018/19 Premier League season, the most common scoreline was 2-0, appearing in 12% of matches. In that same season, 44% of games had winning margins of two or more goals.
If you’re aware of these trends, you might notice that certain teams consistently win by a couple of goals or lose by similar margins. Applying a -1 or -2 handicap in line with these trends can sometimes increase your chances of making a winning bet.
Taking Advantage of Market Imbalances
Handicap betting is also useful when your research gives you insights that the odds don’t fully reflect. If, for example, you think Everton have a better chance than the bookies’ odds imply, using a -1 handicap could be a way to capitalise on that.
This is especially helpful if the implied probability (the odds converted into a percentage) is lower than your own estimate of the outcome. When you spot this kind of gap, handicaps let you adjust the bet in a way that aligns with your own predictions, even if the bookmaker’s odds don’t seem quite right.
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Key Takeaways for Effective Handicap Betting
- Backing Favourites with Handicaps: Use negative handicaps on dominant teams to improve odds when you’re confident they’ll win by a large margin.
- Balancing Tight Matchups: In closer games, consider positive handicaps to account for draws or narrow wins, especially when past results suggest tight contests.
- Tapping Into League Trends: Use common score lines and winning margins as a guide, especially if they align with a team’s performance.
- Leveraging Market Imbalances: When your research shows a different probability than the odds suggest, handicaps offer a way to capitalise on that insight.
In short, handicap betting isn’t just about backing a favourite or boosting the odds on an underdog. It’s a flexible tool that lets you play with different scenarios, making matches more interesting and profitable, no matter how one-sided or balanced the game might be.
With a bit of thought and research, you can use handicaps to open up new betting angles and make the most of your football bets.
For more insightful guides on sports betting strategies to make you a profitable bettor, make sure to check out our betting guide pages.