Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: La Liga Predictions & Betting Tips 08/02/2025
The Madrid derby is always a fiery contest, but Saturday’s showdown at the Santiago Bernabéu promises to be even more explosive, with more than just bragging rights on the line as Real Madrid welcome city rivals Atletico Madrid.
Last weekend, league leaders Real Madrid suffered a shock defeat at relegation-threatened Espanyol, dropping three crucial points, meaning just one point now separates them from second-placed Atletico.
This matchday 23 fixture, therefore, could have massive title implications, and with Los Blancos still reeling from last weekend’s embarrassment, they’ll be desperate to bounce back here.
However, history suggests a clash against their fiercest city rivals is hardly the ideal game for a recovery, given that Real have failed to beat Atletico in their last four La Liga meetings and have lost two of their last five encounters in all competitions.
Perhaps the motivation of keeping their place at the top of the table could drive Real to turn the tide, especially playing in front of their fans at the Bernabéu. However, heavy defeats against Barcelona, Liverpool, and AC Milan this season indicate Los Blancos have often crumbled against strong opposition.
That’s why Kylian Mbappé’s return to the squad is a massive boost—his guile, pace, and movement could make a huge difference against what will surely be a well-organised Atletico defence, especially since a key issue in Real’s big-game defeats this season has been their inability to break down defensively disciplined sides.
Los Colchoneros to Shock Real?
Having picked up points in eight of their last 11 La Liga away games against Real, Atletico certainly won’t fear the Bernabéu, and with Los Colchoneros unbeaten in their last three meetings with their neighbours, they’ll make the short trip across town confident of getting a result.
One player who could be key to that outcome for Diego Simeone’s side is fellow Argentine Julian Alvarez, who’s been outstanding in his debut season for Atletico.
The forward has scored six goals in La Liga, averaging 1.6 shots per game, with 0.9 on target. Against what could be a makeshift Real backline, he should get chances—and given his current form, Atletico will back him to take them.
Betting Tip: Atletico Madrid Win or Draw & Both Teams to Score; Over 2.5 Goals; Julian Alvarez 2+ Attempts on Target
08/02 21:00 Real Madrid – Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid Win or Draw & Both Teams to Score @ 2.77; Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70; Julian Alvarez 2+ Attempts on Target @ 2.95 (Betano)
Real are the favourites with the best betting sites in this one, but given their recent struggles against Atletico and their poor record against top teams this season, backing Los Blancos to win at the odds on offer doesn’t seem like great value.
Instead, Atletico’s strong away form and proven ability to frustrate Real make them a solid value pick to leave the Bernabéu with a result.
Los Colchoneros haven’t lost to Real Madrid in their last four La Liga meetings, and Diego Simeone’s side have taken points in eight of their last 11 visits to the Bernabéu.
With that in mind, we’re confident Atletico will avoid defeat at a minimum. However, given that Simeone’s famed defensive mastery has waned in recent times and Atletico tend to concede, while Mbappé and Vinícius make Real’s frontline a major threat, the hosts should still get on the scoresheet.
On the other hand, Real also have serious issues at the back, with almost all their senior central defenders unavailable. Whatever defensive solutions Carlo Ancelotti comes up with, it’s unlikely to be enough to keep Atletico from finding the net.
Therefore, we recommend betting on Atletico Madrid Win or Draw & Both Teams to Score at 2.77 odds on Betano.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid - Atletico Madrid Win or Draw & Both Teams to Score @ 2.77
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid - Atletico Madrid Win or Draw & Both Teams to Score @ 2.77Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70
Another tip we’re riding for this game is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.70 odds on Betano.
We expect both sides to score, and given Real’s defensive problems and Atletico’s tendency to concede, we should see a high-scoring encounter.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid - Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid - Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70Julian Alvarez 2+ Attempts on Target @ 2.95
Julian Alvarez to register at least 2+ attempts on target in this match is another solid pick for this encounter.
The Argentine is Atletico’s most dangerous forward, averaging 1.6 shots per game with 0.9 on target. With Real Madrid’s defence expected to feature untested partnerships, Alvarez should have enough opportunities to test the keeper.
At 2.95 odds on Betano, Julian Alvarez registering at least 2+ attempts on target feels like an excellent value pick.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid - Julian Alvarez 2+ Attempts on Target @ 2.95Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid - Julian Alvarez 2+ Attempts on Target @ 2.95For even more value, combining all three tips—Atletico Madrid Win or Draw + Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals + Julian Alvarez 2+ Attempts on Target—using Betano’s bet builder feature gives a solid 8.25 odds.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid - Bet Builder: Atletico Madrid Win or Draw & Both Teams to Score; Over 2.5 Goals; Julian Alvarez 2+ Attempts on Target @ 8.25Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid - Bet Builder: Atletico Madrid Win or Draw & Both Teams to Score; Over 2.5 Goals; Julian Alvarez 2+ Attempts on Target @ 8.25Predicted Lineups:
- Real Madrid: Courtois (GK); Vazquez, Asencio, Tchouameni, Mendy; Modrić, Valverde; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius Jr, Mbappe
- Atletico Madrid: Oblak (GK); Llorente, Le Normand, Lenglet, Mandava; Simeone, Barrios, Koke, Lino; Griezmann, Alvarez
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